All Items Index

In September 2022, on a year–on- year basis, the headline inflation rate was 20.77%. This was 4.14% points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2021, which was (16.63%). This indicates that in the month of September 2022 the general price level was 4.14% higher relative to September 2021. 

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in September 2022 was 1.36%, this was 0.41% lower than the rate recorded in August 2022 (1.77%). This means that in the month of September 2022, the headline inflation rate (month–on–month basis) declined by 0.41%, relative to August 2022. 

The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve-month period ending September 2022 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 17.43%, showing a 0.60% increase compared to 16.83% recorded in September 2021. The Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index. 

Likely Factors Responsible For The Decline In The Monthly Inflation Rate (Month-on-month basis). 

Over the past two months, there has been a decline in headline inflation on a month-on-month basis due to a decline in the changes in the food index relative to the reference month index which is due to the present harvest season.

Likely Factors Responsible For The Increase In Annual Inflation Rate (Year-on-Year basis). 

1. Disruption in the supply of food products 

2. Increase in import cost due to the persistent currency depreciation 

3. General increase in the cost of production.

Urban Inflation 

On a year-on-year basis, in the month of September 2022, the urban inflation rate was 21.25 %, which was 4.06% higher compared to the 17.19% recorded in September 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 1.46% in September 2022, this was a 0.34% decline compared to August 2022 (1.79%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the urban inflation rate was 17.94% in September 2022. This was 0.53% higher compared to the 17.41% reported in September 2021. 

Rural Inflation 

The rural inflation rate in September 2022 was 20.32% on a year-on-year basis; this was 4.24% higher compared to 16.08% recorded in September 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in September 2022 was 1.27%, down by 0.48% compared to August 2022 (1.75%). The corresponding twelve-month average for the rural inflation rate in September 2022 was 16.94%. This was 0.68% higher compared to the 16.26% recorded in September 2021

Food Index

The food inflation rate in September 2022 was 23.34% on a year-on-year basis; which was 3.77% higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2021 (19.57%). This rise in food inflation was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food products n.e.c, Potatoes, yam, and other tuber, oil, and fat. 

On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in September was 1.43%, this was a 0.54% fall compared to the rate recorded in August 2022 (1.98%). This decline was attributed to a reduction in prices of some food items like Tubers, Palm oil, Maize, Beans, and Vegetables. 

The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve-month period ending September 2022 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.36%, which was a decline of 1.35% points from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2021 (20.71%).

All Items Less Farm Produce

The ‘’All items less farm produce’’ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 17.60% in September 2022 on a year-on-year basis; up by 3.86% when compared to 13.74% recorded in September 2021. 

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.59% in September 2022. This was relatively the same rate recorded in August 2022. 

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Passenger transport by Air, Passenger travel by road, and Solid fuel. 

The average 12-month annual inflation rate was 14.93% for the twelve-month period ending September 2022; this was 2.38% points higher than the 12.55% recorded in September 2021

State Profiles

In analysing price movements under this section, it should be noted that CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across states and locations. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from state to state making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading 

All Items Inflation 

In September 2022, all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (23.82%), Rivers (23.49%), Benue (22.78%), while Abuja (17.87%), Borno (18.12%), and Adamawa (18.42%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year-on-Year inflation. On a month-on-month basis, however, September 2022 recorded the highest increases in Jigawa (2.58%), Yobe (2.22%), Benue (2.05%), while Abuja (-0.72%), Sokoto (-0.19%) and Adamawa (0.25%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation. 

Food Inflation 

In September 2022, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kwara (33.09%), Kogi (28.46%), and Ebonyi (27.41%), while Kaduna (18.84%), Jigawa (19.20%) and Sokoto (19.44%) recorded the slowest rise on year-on-year food inflation. On a month-on-month basis, however, September 2022 food inflation was highest in Enugu (2.61%), Ogun (2.50%), and Oyo (2.43%), while Sokoto (-0.88%), Ondo (0.38%) and Niger (0.62%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation.