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Migration Rate After COVID-19: Can Nigeria Keep Nigerians?

Sep 09, 2020   •   by   •   Source: Proshare   •   eye-icon 1370 views

Wednesday, September09, 2020   5:58 PM / by FDC / Header Image Credit: FDC Limited

 

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Migrationof Nigerians is primarily of two types: emigration and rural-urban migration.The main reason for both types is to find "greener pastures" either in thecity, mostly Lagos, or another country, most recently Canada. People want toleave their rural community or the country entirely because of underlyingnegative factors where they live. Currently, an estimated 20 million Nigerianslive in the Diaspora. This is 10% of the total population (200 million).Meanwhile, the population of the metropolitan city, Lagos, increases annuallyby 3% (currently at 14.3 million).

 

Inaddition, the drive to leave the country has made some Nigerians take drasticmeasures resulting in loss of life. About 3,000 Nigerians in Libya diedattempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea, in 2017. Unfortunately, there arecurrently no adequate incentives to stop this trend. With over 50% of Nigeriansbelow 20 years and the persistent rise in economic uncertainties - sluggishgrowth rate (1.87%), rising inflation(12.56%), volatile exchange rate (N475/$),high unemployment (23.3%) and poverty levels (42% of Nigerians live below adollar per day) - the future remains bleak in rural and urban areas.

 

TheCOVID-19 pandemic has aggravated the weaknesses in the economy and furtherwidened the gap between where the economy is right now to its potential. Willthese trends continue postCOVID-19 and can Nigeria keep Nigerians?

 

What are the problems?

A widerange of problems cut across rural-urban migration and emigration.

 

1. Harshliving conditions - The standard of living including housing conditions,power, and water supply in rural areas does not compare to urban areas. Ruralyouths dream of a better life in the "city" and are willing to take theirchances. The same dreams apply to city-dwellers who yearn for better livingconditions by moving to an advanced economy. Factors that tempt them includeexchange rate volatility, high food prices, insecurity, social unrest and to anextent, political conundrums. While some rural dwellers leave because of poorliving conditions, some urban dwellers leave due to the high cost of living.

 

2. Fearfor the next generation - Everyone wants a better life for their children,even the old woman living in the suburbs of the village. Most do not have aconvincing and clear picture of where the country will be in the next fewyears. The uncertainty forces the decision to relocate to an advanced countryor to encourage their children to leave the rural environs for the city.

 

3. Povertyand unemployment - The limited prospects of getting a job upon graduationcontinues to rise yearly. About 47% of graduates are unemployed from the total500,000 that leave college every year and over 80 million Nigerians areconsidered poor.Hence, fewer job opportunities coinciding with highunemployment will limit the prospects for increased income to lift moreNigerians out of poverty.

 

4. Education - Rural dwellers leave their states to get better education in the city;meanwhile many others relocate/migrate to other countries to advance theireducational qualifications. At the tertiary level, the emigration rate isestimated at 36%. This shows the need for a curriculum and educationalfacilities review. This is particularly important now that there is a shift toskill/experience/professionalism from theory/certificates.

 

5. Infrastructuraldevelopment - The bad roads, poor electricity, no rail system among otherunderdeveloped infrastructure projects are major constraints to the ease ofdoing business in the country. Therefore, we find that MSMEs business ownersreally look forward to leaving the country to create opportunities elsewhere.

 

6. Institutionalproblems - Poor implementation of policies, misappropriation of funds,inadequate data and resource misallocation are impeding factors to thedevelopment of various states and the economy at large.

 

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Impact of emigration

Thehigh emigration rate results in an increase in Diaspora remittances. Remittanceinflows rose by 25% from $20.11 billion in 2016 to $25.08 billion in 2018.However, emigration can worsen brain drain across several sectors in theeconomy, especially the health sector. There is currently a huge deficit in thehealth sector as Nigeria has just a meager 74,000 registered doctors to caterfor a growing population of about 200 million (registered doctors is 0.037% oftotal population). In addition, an estimated 2,000 medical professionals anddoctors leave the country annually.7 Another impact of a high emigration rateis an increase in capital flight from the country. Between 1970 and 2010,Nigeria lost a staggering sum of $233.9 billion to capital flight transfers,8which could have been used to increase the level of industrialization and inturn employment in the country.

 

Post-COVID-19: Will the migration rate spike?

It isnot farfetched to say the pandemic has deepened the current economic paralysis.Thus, with the strong correlation between economic growth/development and themigration rate, there is high probability of the rate rising. In addition,research shows that one in three Nigerians considers emigrating for differentreasons ranging from education to better job opportunities and businessenvironments.9 Therefore, as more economies reopen and people adjust to the newnormal to include COVID-19 in the long list of other viruses/bacteria humanscurrently live with, the emigration rate could increase significantly.

 

Can Nigeria keep Nigerians? - The way forward

Nigerianswill stay in Nigeria if the pace of economic recovery quickens and there is agradual halt to the disincentives that push Nigerians out of Nigeria andindigenes out of their state. Deliberate actions need to be taken by thegovernment to improve the overall economy. A good way to start could be toaddress the huge infrastructural gap in both the rural and urban areas. Suchfocus could speed up rural development and in turn reduce the rate ofrural-urban migration that ends up putting pressure on resources in urbanareas. Improving infrastructure would also support the business environment.Educational and medical emigration could drop in the event of an uptick in thequality and quantity of educational and medical facilities. Once peopleperceive an improvement in living conditions they will stay and build thecountry. The broad goal remains sustained economic development but the processstarts with the smaller pieces like fixing power supply, water, flooding,traffic congestion and ease of doing business

 

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