Downloadable Versions of 2024 Economic Outlook Report (PDF)

1. Executive Summary: Nigeria's 2024 Economic Outlook Report: Creating Hope by Numbers and Strategies - February 19, 2024
2. Full Report: Nigeria's 2024 Economic Outlook Report: Creating Hope by Numbers and Strategies - February 19, 2024

Recalling that 2023 was an election year, most analysts were modestly optimistic about Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators. Many analysts estimated a slower GDP growth lower than the FY 2022 3.0%, mooting figures between 2.70 and 2.90%. However, the unexpected economic reforms and naira redesign policy further lowered actual GDP growth to an average of 2.31% for Q1 and 2.54% in Q3 2023. The projection of analysts of a 2.9% GDP growth would mean that the economy would grow by 4.14% in Q4 2023; this was unlikely to have happened.  Revised growth estimates in 2023 put the figure between 2.5% and 2.6% (see illustration 17 below).

Illustration 17: 

Our Assumptions Guiding the Nigeria Economy

Macro

• Nigeria's GDP growth will rise to 3.2% but lag behind the projected 6.8% of Ethiopia or 6.4% of Congo DRC in 2024.
• Nigeria's inflation rate will stay high but fall from 2023 levels by the end of Q2 2024
• The poverty rate should rise from current levels but l as inflation drops.
• The unemployment rate should rise slowly in 2024.
• Population growth rate should remain at 2.4%.

Monetary

• Monetary policy will remain tight in 2024 but loosen by Q4.
• FX illiquidity will persist but stabilise in H2 2024
• Fiscal imbalance will moderate as the government explores alternative funding sources.
• External reserves decline should slow in 2024 with the Afrexim loan and higher oil production.

Trade

• Nigeria's oil production will rise to between 1.5mbd and 1.65mbd, remaining below historical highs of 2.2mbd pre-COVID-19.
• Trade surplus should persist in 2024 as import slows due to exchange rate volatility and strong exports.
• Financialisation and securitisation of national assets may be on the table in 2024 as options for financing capital projects narrow.

Industries

• PMI should continue to hover around the 50-point mark. 
• NGX market capitalization should maintain upward trend in Q1 2024 but slow in Q2 after dividend payment.
• Tax should maintain current levels, but VAT might rise to 10%.

Household

• The temporary minimum wage raise should face off in April and return to N30,000 for the remaining part of the year.
• Misery index should stay high.
• Consumer’s disposable income might further decline as inflation stays elevated. 
• The mild cash scarcity should continue to drive financial inclusion.
• The Heightened insecurity would keep food inflation elevated.

Politics