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Market | Bonds & Fixed Income

NT-Bills Update: Average Yields Expands by 5bps WoW to 10.67%

Nov 28, 2022   •   by Afrinvest Research   •   Source: Afrinvest   •   eye-icon 190 views

Last week, the Nigerian Treasury Bills (“NT-Bills”) secondary market recorded a bearish run as investors anticipated Primary Market Auction (“PMA”) that held last Wednesday (23-Nov-2022).  Minimal trading activities were witnessed across the curve despite buoyant system liquidity (which stood at N394.4bn long as of Tuesday). Consequently, average yield expanded 5bps W-o-W to settle at 10.67% from 10.62% the previous week.
 
Selloffs were recorded on the short-dated instruments as their average yields expanded 19bps to settle at 10.08%. Specifically, the 16-Mar-2023 instrument advanced the most as its average yield expanded by 103bps W-o-W. Conversely, the medium- and long-term instruments witnessed most demand as their average yields (9.38% and 14.27%) dipped 75bps and 4bps W-o-W respectively.
 
At the PMA, the Apex bank offered a total of N213.46bn across the 91-, 182- and 364-Day instruments. The offer recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.69x (213.46bn offer vs. 360.25bn subscription). Furthermore, stop rates on the 91 and 182-Day maturities remained unchanged at 6.50% and 8.05% respectively while the 364-Day maturity expanded by 85bps to close at 14.84%. Average stop rates rose by 29bps to settle at 9.80% from 9.51% at the last auction.
 
Please see a detailed summary of the NT-Bills PMA below:

Auction Date

23-Nov-22

23-Nov-22

23-Nov-22

Allotment / Issue Date

24-Nov-22

24-Nov-22

24-Nov-22

Tenor

91-Day

182-Day

364-Day

Offer Amount (N)

32,275,555,000

41,252,922,000

139,897,300,000

Subscription (N)

11,968,808,000

3,049,171,000

345,232,553,000

Allotment N

11,677,780,000

1,817,860,000

199,930,137,000

Range of Bid Rates (%)

6.00 – 8.50

8.05 – 9.50

11.50 – 17.23

Previous Stop rates (%)

 6.50

 8.05

 13.99

Stop Rates (%)

6.50

8.05

14.84

Subscription ratio

0.4x

0.1x

2.5x

Allotment ratio

1.0x

0.6x

0.6x


This week, we anticipate bullish reactions to the tapered stop rates at the PMA as investors continue to fill in unmet bids from the PMA. Thus, we advise investors to trade cautiously and take advantage of attractive bills across the curve, especially long dated instruments along with offers from corporates.
 
Currently open is the C&I Leasing Commercial Paper, with a minimum amount of N5 million, you can invest for 270 days at 17.8006% interest rate (20.49% yield). The offer closes tomorrow, 29-Nov-22. Send us an email if you would wish to take advantage of the opportunity.

 
Please see indicative secondary market NT-Bills rates below:
 

Maturity

Tenor (Days)

Net Rate (%) p.a.

Yield (%) p.a.

29-Dec-22

31

7.55

 7.60

12-Jan-23

45

8.00

 8.08

9-Feb-23

73

8.40

 8.56

9-Mar-23

101

8.70

 8.91

13-Apr-23

136

8.90

 9.21

11-May-23

164

8.80

 9.16

10-Aug-23

255

9.25

 9.89

12-Oct-23

318

9.75

 10.66

Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (28-Nov-22)
*Please note that the minimum subscription for NT-Bills is 100, 000.00
 
FGN Bond Update: Average Yield Expands Marginally by 1bps WoW to 14.38%
The domestic bond secondary market recorded a bearish performance last week as FGN bond market players reacted to the hike in the Monetary Policy Rate (“MPR”) by 100bps to 16.5% on Wednesday. As a result, the average FGN Bond yields rose marginally by 1bp W-o-W to settle at 14.38% from 14.37% the previous week.
 
Furthermore, the APR-2023 instrument witnessed most selloff as its average yield expanded 99bps to close at 10.17% W-o-W. Buying interests were recorded on the medium dated instruments as yields on MAY-2029 contracted 15bps W-o-W.
 
 Going into the week, we expect mild trading sessions to be sustained as investors continue to react to the MPR hike. We therefore advise investors to take advantage of maturities with relatively attractive yields across the curve.

 
Please see below FGN bond secondary market rates:

Maturity

Tenor (Years)

Yield (%)

Coupon (%)

Implied Price (N)

Mar-24

1.3

           13.60

             14.20

                   100.63

Mar-25

2.3

           13.45

             13.53

                   100.10

Jan-26

3.1

           13.60

             12.50

                     97.22

Mar-27

4.3

           13.70

             16.29

                   108.15

Feb-28

5.2

           13.70

             13.98

                   100.96

Jul-34

11.6

           13.88

             12.15

                     90.11

Mar-36

13.3

           13.88

             12.40

                     91.08

Apr-37

14.4

           15.30

             16.25

                   105.41

Jan-42

19.1

           13.85

             13.00

                   106.62

Rates are valid till 01:45pm today (28-Nov-22)
*Please note that the minimum subscription for FGN Bond is N20,000,000 

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