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Market | Bonds & Fixed Income

NT-Bills Update: Bearish Run Halted as Average Yields Declines 32bps WoW to 3.95%

Mar 13, 2023   •   by   •   Source: Afrinvest   •   eye-icon 185 views
The bearish sentiment recorded last week at the Nigerian Treasury Bills (“NT-Bills”) secondary market came to a halt as the average benchmark yield declined 32bps W-o-W to close at 3.95% as against the 4.05% recorded the previous week.
 
Demands were seen at the mid and short-end of the yield curve with the 8-Jun-23, 27-Apr-23, and 11-May-23 bills witnessing the most buying interest as their average yields contracted 238bps, 166bps, and 134bps respectively.
 
At the Primary Market Auction (PMA) held on Wednesday 8-Mar-23, the Apex bank offered a total of N224.50bn across the 91-, 182- and 364-Day instruments. Investors’ appetite increased as the bid-to-cover ratio rose 2.79x as against the 1.13x recorded at the previous auction. Similarly, On Wednesday, 16-Mar-23, the Apex bank is scheduled to roll over a total of N161.87bn across the 91-, 182- and 364-Day instruments. However, previous stop rates as at last week auction were 1.44%, 6.00%, and 10.00% respectively.
 
Please see a detailed summary of the NT-Bills PMA below:

Auction Date

8-Mar-23

8-Mar-23

8-Mar-23

Allotment / Issue Date

9-Mar-23

9-Mar-23

9-Mar-23

Tenor

(91-Day)

(182-Day)

(364-Day)

Offer (=N=)

1,028,893,000.00

10,554,288,000.00

212,920,474,000.00

Subscription (=N=)

4,353,517,000.00

11,308,093,000.00

890,549,757,000.00

Allotment (=N=)

1,028,893,000.00

10,554,288,000.00

312,920,474,000.00

Range of Bid Rates (%):

1.0000-5.9000

2.1900-9.9000

5.7400-15.9800

Stop Rates (%):

1.44

6.00

10.00

Previous Stop Rates (%):

3.00

3.24

9.90

Subscription Ratio:

4.23x

1.07x

2.85x

Allotment Ratio

0.24x

0.93x

0.35x

 
This week, we expect a slight improvement in yield due to a tight system liquidity. We, therefore, advise investors to trade cautiously and take advantage of attractive bills across the curve, especially long-dated instruments while they stay informed about offers from corporates.
 
Please see indicative secondary market NT-Bills rates below:

Maturity

Tenor (Days)

Net Rate (%) p.a.

Yield (%) p.a.

8-Jun-23

87

1.70

 1.71

10-Aug-23

150

2.75

 2.78

26-Oct-23

227

3.70

 3.79

23-Nov-23

255

4.20

 4.33

28-Dec-23

290

4.80

 4.99

Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (13-Mar-23)
 *Please note that the minimum subscription for NT-Bills is N100, 000.00
 
 
FGN Bond Update: Average Yield Declines 18bps WoW to 13.25%
 
Last week, the domestic bond market also witnessed a yield contraction, as market players take advantage of high interest yield in the market. Buy interest was recorded at the short and long-end of the yield curve, as a result, the average FGN Bond yield declined 18bps W-o-W to settle at 13.07% from the 13.25% recorded in the previous week.
 
 The short and long dated instruments saw the most buy bias, as their average yields contracted (36bps W-o-W) and (18bps W-o-W) respectively. Specifically, the MAR-2024, MAR-2027 and APR-2037 instruments declined 88 bps, 57bps and 39bps accordingly.
Going into the week, we expect to see the bulls hold forth as investors continue to hunt for opportunities. We, therefore, advise investors to take advantage of maturities with relatively attractive yields across the curve, particularly at the mid and longer end of the curve.
 
Please see below FGN Bond secondary market rates:

Maturity

Tenor (Years)

Yield (%)

Coupon (%)

Implied Price (N)

Mar-24

1.0

              5.88

              14.20

                    108.02

Mar-25

2.0

              9.54

              13.53

                    107.20

Jan-26

2.8

            10.45

              12.50

                    104.93

Mar-27

4.0

            11.66

              16.29

                    114.50

Feb-28

4.9

            12.91

              13.98

                    103.81

Jul-34

11.3

            13.40

              12.15

                      92.77

Mar-36

13.0

            13.98

              12.40

                      90.64

Mar-50

27.0

            14.30

              12.98

                    103.35

Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (13-Mar-23)
 *Please note that the minimum subscription for FGN Bond is N20, 000,000.00

 


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