The 2023 presidential elections will be recorded in Nigeria’s history books. For good or bad? We’ll leave you to decide. 

On February 25, 2023, Nigeria held its sixth presidential election under the new electoral laws institutionalized in 2022. This was the tightest race since the 1999 elections with a strong third force. APC, PDP and the Labour Party (LP). 

In the end, the APC presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged as the winner with a total of 8.79 million votes, while PDP’s Atiku came in second with 6.98 million votes and Labour party’s Obi came in third with 6.10 million votes.

The 2023 election was different or supposed to be different for two reasons. First, INEC introduced the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS)—a semi-digital gadget—to limit electoral malpractice and rigging. Second, Nigeria’s youths, known to be passive about the electoral process, were keen on translating their social media frenzy to actual votes on election day. 

Many hoped the status quo of ballot box theft, thuggery and electoral manipulations will be far from their polling units. Many hoped on INEC’s BVAS machines. But alas, like other election stories, Nigeria happened. 

Unfortunately, these recurrent issues including past problems like bloated voter registers from migrant and underage voters (which inflate the numbers), forced many to relinquish their voting rights for their safety and security, leading to a low voter turnout. Only 26.60% (25 million) of the 94 million registered voters voted. 

However, two defining factors present in all of Nigeria’s elections did not fail to surface— religion and tribalism. It’s probably the reason the presidential candidates of four parties, APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP recorded landslide victories in states, heavily skewed towards religion and tribalism that favour them. Of course, this excludes Lagos and the FCT. Noteworthy is that each candidate has strong ties to their ethnic roots, hence the loyalty and support from the said voters. 

What next for the president-elect? 

With opposition press conferences happening and possible court action against INEC and the APC, our eyes are on the next events to unfold before the swearing-in ceremony in May. 

However, in the interim, Nigeria’s new president-elect, Tinubu, has his work cut out for him. He has inherited a crippled economy from his fellow party man. Growth is sluggish at barely 3%, inflation remains in double digits, near 22% (the highest in 20 years) and the country’s debt is massive at ₦44.06 trillion as of Q3 2022. Meanwhile, insecurity still plagues the nation, stifling output growth of the real sectors of the economy. 

Nigeria’s macroeconomic difficulties are hydra[1]headed, and Tinubu will need to implement a prioritization program before he hits the ground running. At the top of this list should be tackling insecurity as this would first create a sane macroeconomic environment to then attract foreign investment. According to the World Bank, Nigeria currently needs $100 billion annually to bridge its infrastructure deficit. 

This approach will unyoke important sectors (oil, agriculture, manufacturing, and trade) of the economy that contribute to GDP growth and employment. The expectation is that output will increase from these sectors, then boost domestic supply and possibly taper prices (disinflation). Then, it would also improve export earnings and bolster the government's coffers and external reserves. An increase in government revenue will aid infrastructural development in critical sectors like health and education, which will, in turn, boost labour productivity. A healthy and productive workforce will contribute positively to economic growth and development. Additionally, a boost to the government’s purse could gradually aid debt and interest payments. 

Noteworthy is that the new president-elect will have to prioritize attracting foreign direct investments (FDI) which have fallen by 77% in the last three years. FDIs are stable, and lasting, with long-term economic benefits to growth.

Nigerians will smile, for now! 

Tinubu’s starter pack aside, the possible end to the naira scarcity and its attendant black market could come to an end soon. This is because the naira swap policy was initially implemented to reduce vote buying, and the elections are over (almost). 

As such, people will begin to access the new notes, albeit in trickles and Nigerians can finally spend. This is important because consumption contributes 70% to the economy’s growth. 

In addition, businesses will have access to cash to build up inventories and increase supply, positively contributing to economic activities. However, worthy of note is that the other aspect of the naira swap policy which is to encourage a cashless economy could be in view as the value of digital transactions rose by 28% in December 2022 from (₦30.26 trillion) in December 2021. The currency in circulation has declined by 57.1% in January to N1.1trn from N3.2trn in October 2022. 

Ultimately, till the formal handover on May 29, 2023, Muhammadu Buhari, will continue to preside over the affairs of the government. 

In the meantime, governorship elections will be conducted across 25 states in Nigeria. So, get your PVCs ready for the next round of voting.