Sunday, October 23, 2016/Proshare Research

The Diagnosis
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended October 14, 2016 technically revealed  negative sentiments along with active sell activities while investors were largely in cautious mood.

Also, an extensive analysis revealed moderate growth in distribution level while investors displayed cautious mood towards equities, particularly in Conglomerates, Healthcare, Agriculture and ICTsectors.

In addition, volume analysis revealed active sell tendency towards ETI, TRANSCORP, AFRIPRUD and GLAXOSMITH while investors displayed moderate buy postures towards GUARANTY, NEM, STANBIC and MOBIL.

Nonetheless, investors displayed fresh and growing sell tendency in some active sector(s), particularly in Agriculture and Financial Services sector(s). However, we observed growing buy tendency in Financial Services.

Summarily, the bears dominated the week, depressing the key benchmark index by 264.21 points against 25.81 gains recorded in the previous week to close at 27,596.82- ASI remains battered below its key resistance level at 41,957.50.

In addition, the All Share Index traded within the   range of 27,634.99 (week-high) and 27,478.04 (week-low) to settle at 27,596.82- below previous week’s low (27,859.78) by 257.96- This indicates growing sell sentiments when compared with previous posture. The outlook reveals active sell postures.

In the week just ended, market breadth closed negative at 0.58x against 0.57x recorded in the previous week on the back of negative sentiments.

Likely trends in the coming periods: We expect a sustained low bargain pattern as market sentiments appeared mixed while investors remained cautious during the week



Technically, market sentiments during the bearish week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium Cap categories in the sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in Services, Construction/Real Estate and Natural Resources sector(s), which further revealed the sector(s) investors patronised in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that negative sentiments appeared stronger in, Oil & Gas, Industrial Goods, Financial Services, Agriculture, Consumer Goods, Healthcare, ICT and Conglomerates



Stock Trend & Direction
We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME
ETI experienced moderate sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -9.10% loss in the week against -0.50% gain recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained and prolonged sell-down pattern in the last 21weeks to record 43.88% loss experienced between May 27^th and October 21^st 2016.

In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed growing sell sentiments towards the stock while RSI and CCI revealed steep decline pattern in price momentum. The stock closed bearish in both short-term and mid-long term periods, indicating active presence of bears towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.

Also, we observed a significant growth in bearish volume during the week, indicating active distribution from investors during the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability to sustained sell-down pattern in the coming session, considering strong bearish tendency observed during the week. However, the extreme oversold posture of the price may incite speculative trading soon.  A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



THE GAINERS
CAVERTON experienced moderate bargain tendency to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +13.20% gain in the week against +13.14% gain recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained price recovery pattern in the last 2weeks to record 28.36% gain, following 6 weeks active sell-down of -54.11% loss, experienced between 12^th August and October 17^th 2016.

In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active and growing bargain tendency towards the stock as RSI and CCI revealed sharp uptrend momentum. The stock closed neutral in short-term but remain bearish in mid-long term periods, indicating active presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability to extend uptrend in the coming session, considering the active demand postures and upper breakout observed in the week. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



THE LOSERS
CADBURY experienced moderate sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -16.20% loss in the week against -5.00% loss recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained sell-down tendency towards the stock in the last 2weeks to record 22.49% loss, following moderate rally of +22.75 experienced between September 16^th and September 30^th 2016.

Technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell-down with a sharp falling pattern in price momentum while the stock closed neutral in both short-term and mid-long term periods. This indicates growing presence of the bears towards the stock.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to sustain the sell sentiments in coming sessions, considering the active sell momentum experienced during the week. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume Analysis



Click to view Due Diligence and Price Performance trend.

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ETI

CAVERTON

CADBURY

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.