Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

• According to the Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, the Federal Government (FG) has spent N612.7bn raised through Sovereign Sukuk between 2017 and 2021 for the construction and rehabilitation of 77 roads and 23 bridges.
• Earlier in the week, the Supreme Court in a suit marked FCT/HC/CV/2234/2023, restrained the CBN from extending the deadline on the use of old Naira notes pending the determination of the suit. The order will be for an initial period of seven days until the motion of notice is heard on 14-Feb.
• According to a Reuters survey of activity, Nigeria’s oil production which began rebounding in Nov-2022 after a prolonged lull, stayed stagnant in Jan-2023. According to the survey, Nigeria’s oil production did not increase from the 1.2mbpd recorded in Dec-2022.
• The Federal Government (FG) has disbursed over N16.8bn as grants and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) to more than two million Nigerians since the commencement of the CCT programme in 2016.
• The FG plans to launch a new policy for public finance management. This policy, referred to as the Bottom-Up Cash Planning Policy, will be launched on Friday 9-Feb-2023 for effective tracking of government spending.
• According to the report released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). In Q1-2022 Discos were to pay about N206.0bn as generation costs; N165.0bn and N41.0bn for transmission and administrative services respectively.
• NERC also revealed poor remittance was a direct consequence of the Discos recording higher than allowed Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection loss. The loss estimated at 48.0% in the sector for Q1-2022 comprises technical and commercial loss of 23.0% and a collection loss of 31.0%. The ATC&C loss increased by 0.9% compared to 47.0% recorded in Q4-2021.

 Ghana

• According to Bloomberg, Ghana has increased the interest rate on the new bonds it is offering under its domestic debt exchange program as it seeks to attract more investors.
• According to the Ministry of Finance, Ghana, the country will now pay between 8.35% and 15.0% on the new securities compared with between 5.0% and 9.0% earlier.
• According to the Deputy Minister of Finance, Abena Osei-Asare, the Ghanaian government is "hopeful" that more bondholders will complete the process of signing up for the domestic debt exchange before the new Feb. 10 deadline.
• According to Bloomberg, Ghana has reached about 50.0% subscription in its local debt swap programme.
• According to Bloomberg, MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest wireless carrier, disclosed that the 8.2bn cedi ($672.0mn) tax bill it received from the Ghanaian government has been scrapped. Ghana’s decision came after "extensive and productive discussions" during a 21-day negotiation period between the West African nation’s authorities and the mobile-phone operator. The company’s shares rose as much as 3.0% in Johannesburg after the news emerged.
• According to Avoir analyst, Micheal Steere, the market is expected to continue to respond positively, as the tax liability (8.2bn cedi) accounted for a consensus 4.0% of the group’s market capital.

Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)

Senegal

• Senegal's President Macky Sall announced that funding has been secured for the construction of the Ndayane Port Project, a joint venture between Dubai's state-owned DP World and the Port Authority of Dakar. The $1.1bn deep-water port is the largest private investment in Senegal and will be located approximately 50.0 km south of Dakar.
• Bloomberg reports revealed that Senegal, one of West Africa’s most politically stable countries is estimated to record a world-beating 8.0% growth this year, primarily due to strong expected oil and gas revenues.
• The Dakar-based Partech Africa reached its first close at €245.0mn for its Africa-focused fund, with participation from development finance institutions including the German Development Bank, European Investment Bank, and International Finance Corporation.

 Ivory Coast

• The Minister of Agriculture, Kouassi Kobenan Adjoumani revealed that the government of Ivory Coast will be subsidising the West African nation's cotton industry with XAF32.5bn ($54.4mn) due to insect infestations which damaged crops.
• Cotton production is expected to plummet 53.0% in the 2022-23 season in Ivory Coast as cotton output for the season is expected at 269,000 metric tons, down from 570,421 metric tons produced during the 2021-22 season.
• On 1-Feb the Ivorian Council of Ministers approved Cote D’Ivoire’s accession to the Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters.
• According to Bloomberg reports, rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana brought an end to the harmattan dryness, boosting the outlook for the cocoa crop in the world’s top growers.

 Mali

• The government-run Malian Company for Textile Development SA, (CMDT) revealed that cotton harvests in Mali, have been hit by severe flooding and insect infestations. Output for the 2022-23 season is now seen at 526,000 metric tons, compared with a forecast in December of 500,000-600,000 tons. More than 32,523 hectares of cotton farmlands have been destroyed by insects, and 35,000 hectares by floods.
• According to the office of Burkina Faso Prime Minister (PM) Apollinaire Kyelem de Tambela, the PM proposed the creation of a "federation" with Mali during a recent visit to the country.
• Mali's government has ordered the U.N. peacekeeping mission's (MINUSMA) human rights chief to leave the country by Tuesday, declaring him persona non grata in the latest sign of tensions between Mali's leaders and the international community.
• Cora Gold the London-listed mining company announced it is to raise at least $19.6mn through a mix of equity fundraising and convertible loan notes. The company is raising funds for the development of its Sanankoro gold project located in Mali. Cora Gold announced in 2022 that the definitive feasibility study for Sanankoro showed an annual production of 56,000 ounces, with a reserve mine life of 6.8 years. It is estimated to generate $228mn in free cash flow throughout its lifetime.
• Following talks between Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov, Malian President, Assimi Goita, and Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop in Bamako, Russia will begin to develop trade and investment relations with Mali, as well as partnerships in geological exploration, transport, and agriculture.
• In addition, the supply of wheat and petroleum products to Mali from Russia is expected to start soon. Also, in relation to security, Russia will continue to provide support to Mali in improving the African country's armed forces, with plans for an additional delivery of military equipment, as well as steps to train the Malian military at Russian universities.

East Africa

Kenya

• Kenya is importing wheat from Russia, with consignments arriving from the Port of Movorossiysk. This is in an effort to cool wheat prices which retail at KSh200.0 per 2.0kg packet domestically. The Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) attributed the surge in price to drought and high input costs. Local wheat production was at 1.2mn 90.0 kg bags in the current season (vs 1.8mn in the previous).
• The National Social Security Fund (NSSF), Kenya’s largest pension fund, won a court ruling allowing it to increase monthly contributions to 6.0% of workers monthly pensionable earnings with a payment matched by their employer from 10-Jan.
• According to a statement from the National Treasury, the government is seeking the approval of lawmakers to increase expenditure by KSh14.7bn (0.4%) to KSh3.4tn in the FY through Jun-2023 in a supplementary budget. Nominal revenue was revised upward by KSh66.4bn even as total revenue-to-GDP is estimated at 17.4% (vs previous estimate of 17.6%).
• Also, fiscal deficit including grants, is projected at 5.7% of GDP (vs 6.2% target). The Treasury proposes to decrease net borrowing to 3.0% of GDP (from 4.2%) and net foreign financing to 2.7% of GDP (from 2.0%).
• According to Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data, external debt rose 3.0% y/y in Dec-2022 to $37.9bn. Domestic debt rose 11.0% y/y to KSh4.5tn over the period.

 Rwanda

• The Finance Minister in a presentation of the revised annual budget stated that expenditure will be raised to FRw4.8tn from FRw4.6tn. This, the Minister says, is to support economic recovery and supplement job-creation efforts. The Rwandan economy expanded 8.5% from Jan- to Aug- 2022.
• According to the National Institute of Statistics Rwanda, the unemployment rate rose to 24.3% in Q4-2022 from 18.1% in Q3-2022.

 Uganda

• The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Uganda stated that more foreign-currency financing will shore up external reserves, even as the government plans to commence the substitution of domestic financing with foreign inflows in Dec-2023. Reserves stand at $3.8bn (vs $3.5bn in Dec-2022). FX Inflows are expected from oil investments and the disbursement of $240.0mn from the IMF.
• The Bank of Uganda held its benchmark interest rate at 10.0% for a second consecutive meeting. It forecasts headline inflation to average 6.5% with a balance of risks tilted downwards. Economic growth is forecast at 5.0% - 5.6% for the year through Jun-2023.
• The Energy Minister announced that the Uganda National Oil Company has been awarded an exploration license for an initial two years for the Kasuruban block. The production sharing agreement is for six years of three equal periods.
• According to the Stanbic Bank and S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data on the Ugandan economy for Jan-2023, the index rose to 53.2 from 52.0 in Dec-2022.

Southern Africa

South Africa

• According to Statistics South Africa, mining production fell by 3.5% y/y in Dec-2022 compared to the revised 9.2% drop in Nov-2022. On a monthly basis, mining production rose by 1.2% m/m marking the first increase after four consecutive months of declines. Notably, South Africa’s gold output fell by 3.3% y/y in Dec-2022, negatively contributing to the decline in mining production.
• Additionally, manufacturing production in South Africa slumped by 4.7% y/y in Dec-2022, following an upwardly revised 1.8% drop in the prior month. This is the second consecutive month of falling industrial activity, a worrying sign that the extensive rolling blackouts are dimming a power-intensive sector.
• Standard Bank projects that the South African economy will grow by 1.3% in 2023 following high commodity prices and increased demand from the reopened Chinese economy.
• South Africa’s state-owned logistics company, Transnet SOC Ltd, plans to shrink the 20,000km freight rail network it operates by at least 35.0% as it focuses on delivering more profitable cargo loads.
• CEOs of companies that are members of the Consumer Goods Council of South Africa have called on the government to urgently intervene to stop a potential shortage of food, medicine, and other essential goods due to rolling blackouts.
• British Airways is starting a codeshare partnership with South Africa’s Airlink, boosting connectivity between the UK, Europe, North America and more than 15 destinations in southern Africa. This means British Airways’ customers travelling from South Africa to other destinations covered by the UK airline can travel on a single ticket.

Angola

• The Angolan government plans to boost and develop its infrastructure projects through cheap funding to create a good investment environment and attract direct private capital in various projects, including agri-business, fishing, and industry.
• The Ministry of Telecommunications, Information Technology and Mass Media (MINTTICS) plans to commence the process for the commercialisation of ANGOSAT-2 satellite services. The Angolan satellite will allow national telecommunications operators and the government to benefit from bandwidth capacities.

 Zambia

• Zambia Airports Corporation Limited (ZACL) has intensified engagements with key stakeholders, including airlines and other service providers, to promote domestic tourism by ensuring it is accessible and affordable to locals.
• The United States has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that will support the commitment between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to develop a supply chain for electric vehicle batteries.

 Zambia

• Zimbabwe has imposed a strict ban on the export of unprocessed lithium in a bid to keep more of the value chain of the mineral within the country.

Central Africa

Cameroon

• According to Bloomberg reports Cameroon is scheduled to load 82.0kbpd combined of Kole and Lokele crude in March, the highest combined rate since Oct-2022. Kole exports rose from 34.0kbpd in February to 61.0kbpd in March. However, Lokele loading declined to 21.0kbpd in Mar-2023 from 23.0kbpd in Feb-2023.
• According to the nation’s National Cocoa and Coffee Board, Cameroon’s supply of arabica coffee at Cameroon's key port of Douala has pushed down prices paid for the crop compared to the week prior. A kilogram of coffee sold for XAF2,202 ($3.6), 1.0% lower than the XAF2,228 the beans sold on Friday last week.
• However, Cameroon-Robusta coffee prices rose at Cameroon's Douala port, as demand for the beans grew compared with the week before. A kilogram of the beans sold for XAF1,151 ($1.88), up 2.0% from XAF1,132 exporters paid for the crop on Friday.

 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• The President, Felix Tshisekedi revealed that the DRC wants to position itself as a key source of metals in the green energy transition, and that will mean new exploration for nickel and chromite which will commence in the next few days.
• In a joint statement released by the IFC and DRC government, the International Finance Corp. agreed to a $12.5mn risk-sharing facility that will support Equity Group Holdings unit in Democratic Republic of Congo to provide more credit to small and medium-sized enterprises.
• Eurasian Resources Group Sarl, the mining firm backed by Kazakhstan, plans to spend $1.8bn doubling its African copper and cobalt output as it taps demand for metals needed for the green-energy transition. A projected surge in demand for the battery material as more electric vehicles are made puts ERG in a strong position, according to Chief Executive Officer Benedikt Sobotka.